The war for water will become a reality. Water conflicts. Geopolitical situation in regions of the world Turn of the Great Yellow River

Everyone knows that the Earth will soon run out of oil. Today, when it has dropped significantly in price, not only we, but all of humanity, even those who are not very progressive, are grieving. The disappearance of black gold does not bode well for him.

But it may also happen that we will not see a world without oil. Because even sooner the planet will run out of fresh water. If the liquid disappears, the depletion of which is not accepted today, no one will need oil. Civilization will simply cease to exist - we will die from global dehydration.

And if there is no water in any part of the world, a terrible war will immediately begin to ensure that the disadvantaged have access to it again.

People not only need to drink, but also eat. And there are few places in the world that can produce crops without forced watering. If the water goes away, it will mean one thing: hunger.

Choose: drink or eat

And the water will definitely go away. Because very soon agriculture will begin to consume two-thirds of all the planet’s drinking water, and then the shortage will only increase. To harvest a kilogram of grapes, you need to spend 1000 liters of water, for a kilogram of wheat - 2000 liters, and for a kilogram of dates - more than 2500. Moreover, irrigation is required where the maximum number of people live and population growth is at a breakneck pace, for example, in India.

As a result, if in 1965 there were 4,000 square meters for each person. m of arable land, now - only 2700 sq. m. And in 2020, due to population growth, each individual will have only 1,600 sq. m. To avoid catastrophic famine, it is necessary to increase the yield by 2.4% every year. So far, its annual growth is only one and a half percent, mainly due to genetic engineering, which is so unloved by everyone.

If this continues, then in 2020 in Asia alone, more than half of the total population (55%) will live in countries that will have to import grain. China is already buying rice today. Around 2030, India will also be forced to import rice, which by then will become the most populous country in the world. Apparently, grain will have to be imported from Mars - there will be no drinking water left on our planet at all. And the main choice of a person at a time when 90% of water is spent on irrigation will be “drink or eat.” Unfortunately, it will not be possible to combine them.

It’s time, dear reader, to stock up on three-liter jars, because that time is near. In Saudi Arabia and California, groundwater supplies will be depleted in the coming years. In coastal areas of Israel, the water in wells and boreholes already tastes salty. Peasants and farmers in Syria, Egypt, and California are abandoning their fields because the soil is covered with a crust of salt and ceases to bear fruit. And in five years, the lack of water in these areas could become a real thirst from which people will actually start to die.

Where will the garden city be?

“But where will the water go?” - those who remember the cycle in nature will ask. In general, nowhere, it just becomes undrinkable. People drink (as well as use for irrigation) only fresh water, and this is only 2.5% of the earth’s water reserves.

Nowadays, drinking water is delivered to many large cities from sources and storage facilities located hundreds of kilometers away. Thus, in California, the network of water pipelines stretches for more than twenty thousand kilometers. One hundred and seventy-four pumping stations pump valuable moisture into swimming pools and vineyards, cottages and cotton fields. In this American state, daily water consumption has reached a record high: 1055 L per person.

In the Canary Islands, where the soil is scorched by the sun, any tourist can shower ten times a day. Bananas and dates grow in the Israeli desert. Desert country Saudi Arabia has become the largest grain exporter among the Gulf countries. Vineyards are cultivated in arid California. Forty percent of the world's agricultural production is grown in artificially irrigated fields. But soon this abundance will come to an end. And - the war is on schedule.

"Wet" to drink

The first strikes carried out by Israeli aircraft in the Six-Day War were bombings on the foundations of a Syrian dam. The Syrians and Jordanians then set out to build a dam on the Yarmouk, one of the tributaries of the Jordan, to hold back part of its waters. And Israel decided: they had to beat them so that they would have something to drink. Subsequently, General Moshe Dayan said that his country started the conflict only out of fear of being cut off from the region's water resources. For the same reason, the Israelis captured the Golan Heights and the West Bank - they were abundant in groundwater.

Since then, the Israelis have managed the waters of the Jordan themselves. After the victorious war, the Jews forbade Palestinians from digging wells and drilling wells without special permission. While Syria and Jordan are forced to import water, in Israel every date palm and orange tree is artificially irrigated. Every year, about 400 million cubic meters are pumped out of Lake Tiberias, the only large reservoir of fresh water in the region. m of water. She heads to the north of Israel, to the arid, hilly Galilee, transformed by the efforts of people into a prosperous country. The pipelines leading here are hidden in underground adits in order to protect them from possible enemy attacks and terrorist attacks. Water here is more important than oil - a strategic resource.

As a result, each Israeli settler today consumes on average more than 300 L of water per day. The Palestinians receive exactly ten times less.

Greed will not destroy the Turk

The Turkish authorities behave just as greedily when it comes to water. For more than ten years, the Turks have been building dams in the upper reaches of the Euphrates. And now they are going to block the Tiger too. According to the “Great Anatolian Project”, more than twenty reservoirs will be created in Turkey. They will begin to irrigate a vast area of 1,700,000 hectares. But in neighboring countries, Syria and Iraq, water will flow half as much as usual.

Already in 1990, when Turkey, having built the 184-meter-high Ataturk Dam, began to fill the reservoir, the region found itself on the brink of war. For a month, the Syrians were without water. The government in Ankara responded with a callous excuse to all their protests: “Why should we share our water with them? After all, the Arabs don’t share oil with us!”

Syria has already threatened to bomb “all Turkish dams.” Only after long negotiations did Ankara agree to release 500 cubic meters to its southern neighbors. m Euphrates daily. And not a cube more.

Divide of the Blue Nile

The Egyptian authorities are going to build a 60 km long canal near the border with Sudan. It will transform 220,000 hectares of desert into fertile arable land.

In the future, the Ethiopian authorities intend to spend up to 16% of the Blue Nile water (this is the most abundant Nile tributary) for the needs of their agriculture. The division of the river will inevitably lead to inter-ethnic clashes in East Africa. So, back in 1990, when Ethiopia was going to build a dam, the Egyptian government sharply opposed it. At Cairo's insistence, the African Development Bank refused to provide Addis Ababa with a previously promised loan, and the grandiose plan had to be abandoned. At one time, Egyptian President Anwar Sadat uttered a significant phrase: “Whoever jokes with the Nile declares war on us.”

Cotton vs electricity

One of the conflicts over water resources is unfolding right at the borders of Russia, between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. In February, the confrontation reached its highest stage when Tajik President Emomali Rahmon refused to attend scheduled talks with Dmitry Medvedev and did not participate in the CSTO and EurAsEC summits.

The essence of the conflict is in the waters of the Vakhsh River: Tajikistan needs them to power electric generators, and Uzbekistan needs them to irrigate cotton fields. Tajikistan has already begun construction of the world’s largest (height - 335 m) dam to supply the Vakhsh hydroelectric power station with energy. In Tajikistan, a dam is a strategic project: the country has already introduced limited energy consumption, and electricity is supplied on a schedule. But while the reservoir is filled with water, the cotton fields of Uzbekistan in the lower reaches will remain without irrigation, and this is a strategic loss. The sharp intensity of passions between the Russian Federation and Tajikistan was caused by the fact that, according to Dushanbe, Russia took the side of its opponents in the water conflict.

Don't drink, you'll become a little goat!

India and Bangladesh are also worth mentioning. Here the cause of controversy is the waters of the Ganges. Since 1973, India has allocated a huge part of it to the needs of its megacities (for example, Kolkata). As a result, Bangladesh continually experiences catastrophic crop failures and famines, aggravated by an acute shortage of drinking water. In October 1995, for example, more than forty million Bangladeshis suffered from hunger because India “turned off the tap.”

A total of 214 rivers and lakes are common to two or more countries, of which 66 are common to four or more countries. And they have to share all this water. And the further it goes, the more serious the disputes will be. 30 countries get more than a third of their water from sources outside their borders.

And soon water shortage will become a universal problem. By 2025, more than 40% of the planet's population will live in regions where water will become scarce. European countries, especially Spain and Italy, will increasingly face droughts. Some geographers are already talking about the “attack of the Sahara on these regions.” According to experts, in half a century, about 7.7 billion people (that is, approximately two-thirds of the world's population) will drink all sorts of rubbish.

The late King Hussein of Jordan argued: "The only issue that can plunge Jordan into war is water." Former UN Secretary General Boutros Boutros-Ghali has the same opinion: “The next war in the Middle East will be over water.”

And such a war will not be limited to the East, it will be global. Because, in general, it is possible to live without oil, gold and “living space”.

But without water - no.

If we win, we'll get drunk to celebrate

Most of the battles between Europeans and Asians occurred due to droughts and lack of water for agriculture in the southern parts of the world. Historians and climatologists have noticed that there is a clear pattern in the European-Arab wars, starting with the clashes between Rome and Carthage. When temperatures rise in Europe and become favorable for farming, severe droughts occur in Asia. Due to lack of water, the land cannot feed everyone. And the “surplus” population goes to war. On the contrary, while in Europe there is cold and associated crop failure, in Asia there is excellent humidity, it rains regularly and there is enough bread for everyone. During such periods, victories are more likely to be won by Europeans, constrained by crop failure.

After analyzing the history of victories and defeats of Ancient Rome and comparing them with the results of temperature studies in antiquity, historians obtained a 100% coincidence.

New turn

This idea originated in the USSR. Then, “on instructions from the party and government,” it was planned to take from the Ob just below the place where the Irtysh flows into it, part of the river flow equal to approximately 6.5% of its annual discharge - about 27 cubic kilometers. This water was supposed to be received by a grandiose canal with a length of 2550 km. Passing through the territory of Russia, according to the plan of the Hydroproject Institute, the canal would improve the situation with drinking water supply and water supply in the Tyumen, Kurgan, Chelyabinsk and Orenburg regions. Having reached the territory of Kazakhstan, water would flow along the Turgai depression and would allow the development of local coal and polymetallic deposits. And at the end of its journey, it would irrigate 4.5 million hectares of land in the south of the Kazakh SSR, which would allow it to produce millions of tons of corn and soybeans - important feed crops.

But, despite the seemingly obvious benefits, the money question immediately arose. According to economists’ calculations, even for the Soviet Union, the cost of the canal was prohibitive - 27 billion Soviet rubles. And the final implementation would probably exceed the estimate two to three times. The USSR was building Buran at that time and could not afford another megaproject.

Sell at speculative price

And literally at the beginning of last year, when there was no sign of a crisis yet, Moscow Mayor Yu.M. came up with a new idea. Luzhkov. In his opinion, Russia, as the owner of the largest reserves of fresh water in the world, could form a market for this resource by selling the reserves of Siberian rivers to everyone in need. The mayor proposes to build a water intake station on the Ob River near Khanty-Mansiysk and dig a 2,550 km long canal from it to Central Asia. Through it, annually 6–7% of the total drainage of the Ob River will flow away - of course, for money - to consumers in the Chelyabinsk and Kurgan regions, as well as to Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and, possibly, Turkmenistan. Eight pumping stations will raise the water 110 m and force it to flow uphill.

Already in this century, the mayor is sure, fresh water will begin to be sold on world markets in volumes comparable to the volumes of oil sales. Therefore, it is a sin for Russia not to use priceless and, most importantly, renewable resources. True, economists are skeptical about such a project - there is no water market yet and it is impossible to calculate how profitable it will be. But they have no doubt that such a market will appear.

Drinking straw

Every day (!!!) 6,000 people die from dysentery in Africa. This is primarily due to a lack of fresh water. Moreover, stationary installations that purify water in European countries are not suitable for Africa. Here in many cities, not to mention villages, there is no running water, and where there is one, there is no money for the construction of large and expensive treatment facilities. But the development of engineers from the Danish company Veestergaard Frandsen will solve this problem. The Danes proposed filtering water for each African individually - using special filter tubes.

The filter is made as cheap as possible (about $3.5 per piece) and compact. The first is so that humanitarian organizations can distribute it for free, and the second is so that Africans can wear it comfortably, for example, on their chests. The filter resource lasts for a year, during which it can disinfect and filter up to 700 l of water. The new filter is not just about helping the poorest countries. It will be one of the options for solving the problem of global water shortages that humanity will face in 10–15 years.

Turn of the Great Yellow River

When the Soviet leadership decided to turn the Siberian rivers south, the Chinese communists immediately picked up this idea. In 1961, by order of Mao Zedong, construction began on the Grand Canal, through which the waters of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers were directed to the waterless regions of the north and northeast of China. Now the first stage of the great waterway is already in operation. Dozens of powerful pumping stations have been built along the entire length of the canal - the river must be raised to a height of 65 m. To save money, where possible, natural river deltas are used.

The water resource redistribution program embodies the age-old dream of Chinese farmers, popularly known as a poetic metaphor of four characters: “To water the North with the waters of the South.” According to this ambitious plan, from 2050, 5% of the flow of the great Chinese Yangtze River (about 50 billion cubic meters) will be transferred annually to the north.

Everything is fine in Russia, but...

Russia has more than 20% of the world's fresh surface and groundwater reserves. There are about 30 thousand cubic meters per year per inhabitant (78 cubic meters per day). According to this indicator, we hold second place (after Brazil) in the world. It would seem great, but...

90% of Russia's river flow occurs in the basins of the Arctic and Pacific oceans, and less than 8% in the Caspian and Azov seas, where the most favorable conditions for life are found. Having significant water resources and using no more than 3% of the annual river flow, a number of regions of Russia nevertheless experience acute water shortages. This is due to its uneven distribution throughout the country. The more developed and populated central and southern regions of the European part, where 80% of the population and industrial potential are concentrated, account for only 8% of water resources.

Melt the glaciers

India and Pakistan have water reserves in inaccessible places - these are the glaciers of the Pamirs and the Himalayas, covering mountains at altitudes above 4000 m. But the water shortage in Pakistan is already so high that the government is seriously considering the issue of forcibly melting these glaciers.

The idea is to spray harmless coal dust over them, which will cause the ice to actively melt in the sun. But most likely, the melted glacier will look like a muddy mudflow; 60% of the water will not reach the valleys, but will be absorbed into the soil near the foot of the mountains. Finally, the environmental outlook is unclear.

Antarctica will pour everyone

Since the 1960s, there has been ongoing debate about whether icebergs can be transported by tugboat to Africa. So far, these researches are of a theoretical nature: after all, the iceberg has to overcome at least eight thousand nautical miles. Moreover, the main part of the journey takes place in the hot equatorial zone.

All rights to this material belong to Idea X magazine.

If a person is healthy, he can survive for more than a month without food, but without water he will not live even seven days. It all depends on the conditions in which the individual finds himself. In the hot desert, one day is enough to die from dehydration. But you don’t have to go to to feel thirsty. In many countries, drinking water has already become scarce. And it’s no secret that sooner or later wars will break out due to the lack of this most valuable resource.

There is enough water on Earth, but not all bodies of water are suitable for drinking due to the salts dissolved in them. Fresh water makes up only 2.5% of the total natural reserve of this raw material, which is equivalent to 35 million m 3. However, most of it is located in hard-to-reach places, such as underground seas and glaciers. Humanity can use approximately 0.3% of the total amount of fresh water for its needs.

Water suitable for drinking is unevenly distributed. For example, 60% of the world's population lives in Asia, and water in these territories is only 36% of the world's resource. About 40% of the total population of the planet experiences a shortage of fresh water to one degree or another. Every year there are 90 million more people on Earth, while the global volume of water resources is not growing. Water shortages are becoming more and more evident.

Fresh water is used not only for human personal needs. It is also necessary for the development of agriculture, energy and industry. Let's consider a nuclear power plant with a capacity of 1 million kW. How much water does it consume per year? It turns out that the figure is quite impressive - 1.5 km 3!

To produce a ton of steel, you need to use 20 m 3 of water. It takes 1100 m 3 to produce a ton of fabric. Cotton, rice and many other crops also require significant amounts of water during cultivation.

Rivers are constantly being polluted

Humanity itself is primarily to blame for the growing shortage of drinking water. Freshwater sources are constantly being polluted. Every year people pollute up to 17,000 m3 of surface water. Fuel leaks occur regularly, various pesticides and fertilizers are washed off from fields, and urban and industrial runoff contributes.

Most of the rivers on the planet are depleted and polluted. People living on their coasts experience serious illnesses, and the discharge of chemical waste into water bodies leads to severe poisoning. But the rivers are not only polluted, they are rapidly becoming shallow due to disruption of the water regime. High marshes are being drained, forests on the coast and in the catchment area are being cut down. Here and there various hydraulic structures appear. So small rivers turn into miserable streams, or dry up altogether, as if they never existed.

Warming will make the problem worse

The reserve of fresh water that could be used for agriculture and industrial production is approaching zero. The eternal question arises: what to do? You can do wastewater treatment. This area has already had its own leader - the state of Oman. Here, 100% used water raw materials are purified and reused.

By 2030, water consumption may increase several times, and about half of the population will experience a shortage of water resources. Global warming will make the situation even worse. The climate is changing dramatically, and water shortages are beginning to be felt in developed countries. For example, the southwestern United States experienced an incredible drought that caused water shortages in a number of cities and towns. In five years, Africa could see millions of people migrate due to water shortages.

Melted glaciers will leave European rivers without recharge. A similar process may occur in the mountainous regions of Afghanistan, Vietnam, and China. Thus, two arid zones may appear where it will no longer be possible to live. One will pass from Japan and the southern territories of Asia to Central America, the other will capture the Pacific Islands, the main part of Australia and southern Africa.

People are dying for water

In the history of mankind, conflicts over water have constantly arisen. According to experts, wars over water resources will begin again in the near future. In the late 70s of the last century, Egypt threatened Ethiopia with bombing because of the dams it was building in the upper reaches of the Nile River.

In 1995, several politicians said that in the 21st century, wars would start not over oil, but over water. If you look at the map, you can see that many rivers pass through the territory of several states. And, if one state builds a dam on the river, the other will immediately begin to experience a shortage of water resources.

In the 20th century, the foundations for the emergence of “water wars” were already laid, but what are things like now? Not in the best way either. For example, the upper reaches of the Euphrates and Tigris rivers are located in Turkey. This unique state independently decided to build a couple of dozen dams and almost the same number of reservoirs and hydroelectric power stations. Turkey obviously does not care how much water Syria and Iraq, located downstream, will receive after the implementation of this project.

Naturally, both of these states will begin to express their dissatisfaction. So what? At the moment they are weakened by bloody wars, and Turkey must be respected because it is a member of NATO. Iraq and Syria have practically no chance of restoring justice, and Turkey has the opportunity to put pressure on these countries - if it wants, it will add the volume of incoming water, if it wants, it will reduce it.

But Kazakhstan did not remain silent and expressed its dissatisfaction with China’s water projects. Beijing intends to increase water intake from the Ili River. But this river replenishes Lake Balkhash by 80%, and without it the reservoir will quickly become shallow.

Everyone knows that the Earth will soon run out of oil. The disappearance of black gold does not bode well. But it may also happen that we will not see a world without oil. Because even sooner the planet will run out of fresh water. If the liquid disappears, the depletion of which is not accepted today, no one will need oil. Civilization will simply cease to exist - we will die from global dehydration. And if there is no water in some part of the world, a terrible war will immediately begin to ensure that the disadvantaged have access to it again. People not only need to drink, but also eat. And there are few places in the world that can produce crops without forced watering. If the water goes away, it will mean one thing: hunger...

Choose: drink or eat

Where will the garden city be?

Since then, the Israelis have managed the waters of the Jordan themselves. After the victorious war, the Jews forbade Palestinians from digging wells and drilling wells without special permission.

While Syria and Jordan are forced to import water, in Israel every date palm and orange tree is artificially irrigated. Every year, about 400 million cubic meters are pumped out of Lake Tiberias, the only large reservoir of fresh water in the region. m of water. She heads to the north of Israel, to the arid, hilly Galilee, transformed by the efforts of people into a prosperous country. The pipelines leading here are hidden in underground adits in order to protect them from possible enemy attacks and terrorist attacks. Water here is more important than oil - a strategic resource.
As a result, each Israeli settler today consumes on average more than 300 liters of water per day. The Palestinians receive exactly ten times less.

Greed will not destroy the Turk

The Turkish authorities behave just as greedily when it comes to water. For more than ten years, the Turks have been building dams in the upper reaches of the Euphrates. And now they are going to block the Tiger too. According to the “Great Anatolian Project”, more than twenty reservoirs will be created in Turkey. They will irrigate a vast area of 1,700,000 hectares. But in neighboring countries, Syria and Iraq, water will flow half as much as usual.

Already in 1990, when Turkey, having built the 184m high Ataturk Dam, began to fill the reservoir, the region found itself on the brink of war. For a month, the Syrians were without water. The government in Ankara responded with a callous excuse to all their protests: “Why should we share our water with them? After all, the Arabs don’t share oil with us!”

Divide of the Blue Nile

The situation in Africa is no better, even in those places where there seems to be enough water. The Nile, the world's longest river, flows through Tanzania, Rwanda, Zaire, Uganda, Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt. In all these countries, the need for water is growing - because the population is increasing all the time.
The Egyptian authorities are planning to build a 60 km long canal near the border with Sudan. It will transform 220,000 hectares of desert into fertile arable land.

Cotton vs electricity

The essence of the conflict is in the waters of the Vakhsh River: Tajikistan needs them to power electric generators, and Uzbekistan needs them to irrigate cotton fields. Tajikistan has already begun construction of the world's largest (height - 335m) dam to supply the Vakhsh hydroelectric power station with energy. In Tajikistan, a dam is a strategic project: the country has already introduced limited energy consumption, and electricity is supplied on a schedule. But while the reservoir is filled with water, the cotton fields of Uzbekistan in the lower reaches will remain without irrigation, and this is a strategic loss. The sharp intensity of passions between the Russian Federation and Tajikistan was caused by the fact that, according to Dushanbe, Russia took the side of its opponents in the water conflict.

Don't drink, you'll become a little goat!

A total of 214 rivers and lakes are common to two or more countries, of which 66 are common to four or more countries. And they have to share all this water. And the further it goes, the more serious the disputes will be. 30 countries get more than a third of their water from sources outside their borders.

The late King Hussein of Jordan argued: “The only issue that can plunge Jordan into war is water.” Former UN Secretary General Boutros Boutros-Ghali shared the same opinion: “The next war in the Middle East will be over water.” And such a war will not be limited to the East, it will be global. Because, in general, it is possible to live without oil, gold and “living space”. But without water - no.

If we win, we'll get drunk to celebrate

Most of the battles between Europeans and Asians occurred due to droughts and lack of water for farming in the southern parts of the world. Historians and climatologists have noticed that there is a clear pattern in the European-Arab wars, starting with the clashes between Rome and Carthage. When temperatures rise in Europe and become favorable for farming, severe droughts occur in Asia. Due to lack of water, the land cannot feed everyone. And the “surplus” population goes to war. On the contrary, while in Europe there is cold and associated crop failure, in Asia there is excellent humidity, it rains regularly and there is enough bread for everyone. During such periods, victories are more likely to be won by Europeans, constrained by crop failure.

After analyzing the history of victories and defeats of Ancient Rome and comparing them with the results of temperature studies in antiquity, historians obtained a 100% coincidence.

New turn

But, despite the seemingly obvious benefits, the money question immediately arose. According to economists' calculations, even for the Soviet Union the cost of the canal was prohibitive - 27 billion full-fledged Soviet rubles. And the final implementation would probably exceed the estimate two to three times. The USSR was building Buran at that time and could not afford another megaproject.

Turn of the Great Yellow River

When the Soviet leadership decided to turn the Siberian rivers south, the Chinese communists immediately picked up this idea. In 1961, by order of Mao Zedong, construction began on the Grand Canal, through which the waters of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers were sent to the waterless regions of the north and northeast of China. Now the first stage of the great waterway is already in operation. Dozens of powerful pumping stations have been built along the entire length of the canal - the river must be raised to a height of 65m. To save money, natural river deltas are used where possible.

Antarctica will pour everyone

Antarctica can be called the largest reservoir of moisture. Every year, the continent gives up thousands of cubic kilometers of pure ice to the ocean in the form of calving icebergs. For example, one of the giants was about 160 km long, about 70 km wide and 250 m thick. Large icebergs live 8–12 years.
Since the 1960s, there has been ongoing debate about whether it is possible to transport icebergs by tugboat to Africa. So far, these researches are of a theoretical nature: after all, the iceberg has to overcome at least eight thousand nautical miles. Moreover, the main part of the journey takes place in the hot equatorial zone.

A global water crisis is upon us

Water may soon become a strategic resource. This was stated yesterday by Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Nikolai Patrushev. Analysts seriously talk about the likelihood of water wars and conflicts. Climate change has given rise to a new term - water security.

All large areas of the planet are in constant drought. In addition, the progressive shortage of drinking sources has caused a dangerous phenomenon - water migrants. In just one year, over 20 million people around the world fled their homes in water-deprived regions. Russia’s closest southern neighbors are already experiencing acute shortages. According to the UN, about 700 million people in 43 countries are constantly under conditions of “water stress” and shortages. About one sixth of the world’s population does not have access to clean drinking water, and one third does not have access to water for domestic needs, writes Rossiyskaya Gazeta.

If energy security is considered one of the main global problems in the world today, then in the context of climate change, water security will come to the fore. The international community will interpret it as a distribution of water and “water-intensive” products in which there is no threat to world stability from water wars, water terrorism, and the like.

According to the forecast of Russian scientists, between approximately 2035 and 2045, the volume of fresh water that humanity consumes will be equal to its resources. However, a global water crisis may occur even earlier, scientists say. This is due to the fact that the main water reserves are concentrated in only a few countries . These include, in particular, Brazil, Canada and, of course, Russia.

Naturally, in these countries not all the water will be used even by 2045; its reserves are too large. But for many other states, the water problem may come tomorrow.
The threat of a shortage of water resources is also mentioned in the National Security Strategy until 2020. According to Nikolai Patrushev, in 2009, only 38 percent of Russian settlements were provided with drinking water that met safety requirements; another 9 percent received poor-quality drinking water. But that’s not all - in more than half of the cities and villages, drinking water has not been studied at all, and no one knows how harmful it is to health.
The condition of the irrigation system is also a major concern.

The area of irrigated land in Russia is only 4.5 million hectares. The efficiency of water resource use in Russia is 2-3 times lower than in developed countries. All this indicates extremely irrational use of water resources and the need to change state policy in the field of land reclamation.

Today Russia can become a serious player in the water trade. For example, it is proposed to solve the growing water crisis in Central Asia with the help of a project to build a water canal from Siberia. At the same time, according to experts, no serious justification for this project has been presented, Patrushev clarified. As experts note, its economic benefits have also not been calculated, including the willingness of the states in the region to pay the real price for water from Russia.

In addition, according to Russian scientists, the withdrawal of even 5-7 percent of water from the Ob could destroy the region’s ecosystem, destroy the fisheries there and boomerang the climate of vast areas. The thermal balance of the Russian Arctic may change, which in turn will cause climate change over vast territories, disruption of the ecosystems of the Lower Ob region and the Gulf of Ob, and the loss of thousands of square kilometers of fertile land in the Trans-Urals. The total environmental damage in this case could amount to billions of dollars.

According to scientists, in the near future, what will be of particular value on the world market is not water itself as a resource, but water-intensive products. An increase in prices for water-intensive products as the scarcity of water resources increases is inevitable.

Based on materials:

Rich world, poor world

People in rich countries have a hard time imagining what it's like to be water insecure in a developing country. Alarm over the water crisis periodically splashes onto the front pages of newspapers. Collapsing reservoirs, falling river levels, hose bans and calls from politicians to save water are increasingly commonplace in some European countries. In the US, water rationing due to water scarcity has long been a national concern in states such as Arizona and California. But almost everyone in the developed world can get safe water with just the turn of a tap. Everyone is provided with access to individual hygienic toilets. Almost no one dies from lack of clean water or sanitation—and girls are not kept at home, forced to skip school to bring water home.

Compare this with the situation in the developing world. As in other areas of human activity, progress has been made in the field of water supply and sanitation (Fig. 1.1). And yet at the beginning of the 21st century. one in five people living in the developing world—about 1.1 billion people in total. - does not have access to clean water. About 2.6 billion people, almost half the population of developing countries, do not have access to a quality sanitation system. What do these headline numbers mean? In essence, they hide the reality that people experience every day behind the façade of statistics. And this reality means that people are forced to defecate in ditches, plastic bags or on roadsides. “Not having access to clean water” is a euphemism for extreme deprivation. This means that people live more than one kilometer from the nearest source of safe water and that they obtain water from drains, ditches or streams, which may be contaminated with pathogens and bacteria that can cause serious illness and death. In rural areas of sub-Saharan Africa, millions of people drink spring water with animals or use unprotected wells that harbor pathogens. This problem is not limited to the poorest countries. In Tajikistan, almost a third of the population takes water from ditches and irrigation canals, exposing them to the risk of poisoning from polluted agricultural runoff15. The problem is not that people are unaware of the danger, but that they have no choice. In addition to health risks, insufficient access to water means women and girls spend long hours collecting and carrying water home.

Simple comparisons between rich and poor countries help reveal the scale of global inequality (Figure 1.2). Average water consumption ranges from 200-300 liters per day in most European countries to 575 in the USA. Residents of Phoenix, Arizona, a desert city with the greenest lawns in the United States, consume over 1 thousand liters per day. By comparison, average consumption in countries such as Mozambique is less than 10 liters. Country averages inevitably hide very large differences. People without access to quality water in developing countries use much less water, partly because they have to carry it long distances and water is heavy. The international minimum water intake of 100 liters a day for a family of five weighs about 100kg - a heavy load to carry for two or three hours, especially for girls. Another problem is that poor families often cannot afford more than the little water they buy from informal markets.

What is the minimum threshold for adequate water supply? Establishing a water poverty line is difficult due to climate differences - people in arid Northern Kenya need more drinking water than people in London or Paris. Seasonality, individual characteristics of families and other factors matter. International guidelines set by organizations such as the World Health Organization (WHO) and the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) suggest a minimum requirement of 20 liters per day from a source within one kilometer of the home. This is enough for drinking and basic personal hygiene. Below this level, people are limited in their ability to maintain good physical well-being and the dignity that comes with feeling clean. Taking into account the need to wash and wash, the personal threshold would rise to approximately 50 liters per day.

A significant portion of humanity falls far short of meeting the basic threshold of water needs, either permanently or intermittently. For approximately 1.1 billion people. Around the world, those living more than one kilometer from a water source often use less than five liters of water per day, and the water is not safe to drink. To put this figure into context, the basic requirement for breastfeeding women engaged in at least moderate physical activity is 7.5 liters per day. In other words, one in five people in the developing world does not have access to quality water to meet even the most basic needs of well-being and child care. The problems are most acute in rural areas. In Uganda, average consumption in rural areas ranges from 12 to 14 liters per day. During the dry season, consumption drops sharply as the distance to water sources increases. In the dry regions of Western India, the Sahel and East Africa, water availability during the dry season can be reduced to well below five liters per day. But people living in urban areas also experience extreme water shortages. Water consumption averages five to ten liters per day in small towns in Burkina Faso and eight liters per day in the officially unrecognized suburbs of Chennai, India.

Beyond the extreme deprivation level that some 1.1 billion people experience every day, there is a much wider area of deprivation. For people with access to a water source within one kilometer, but not in their home or yard, consumption averages about 20 liters per day. A joint WHO/UNICEF study conducted in 2001 found that 1.8 billion people were in this situation. Without downplaying the seriousness of what is perceived as water shortages in rich countries, the contrasts are stark. In the UK, the average person uses over 50 liters of water per day by flushing toilets - ten times the total amount of water available to people without access to improved water sources in much of rural sub-Africa. from the Sahara. An American taking a five-minute shower uses more water than the average person living in a slum in a developing country does in an entire day. Restrictions on the use of garden sprinklers and water hoses can certainly cause inconvenience for families in rich countries. But parents don't lack water to keep their children clean, practice basic hygiene to prevent killer infections, or maintain their health and dignity.

Of course, water consumption in rich countries does not cause less water in poor countries. Global consumption is not a zero-option game in which one country gets less if another gets more. But comparisons highlight inequities in access to clean water—and nowhere is this more evident than in bottled mineral water. The 25 billion liters of mineral water consumed annually by American families exceeds the entire clean water consumption of 2.7 million people. in Senegal without access to improved water sources. And the Germans and Italians combined consume enough mineral water to cover the basic needs of over 3 million people. in Burkina Faso for cooking, washing and other household purposes. While one part of the world allows a market for designer bottled mineral water to exist without providing any tangible benefit to consumers, another part of the world is putting its health at real risk by forcing people to drink water from ditches, lakes and rivers contaminated with pathogenic bacteria. Animals also drink from these reservoirs.

Is the world facing wars over water resources?

09.11.2006 39 countries around the world get most of their water needs from abroad. Among them are Azerbaijan, Latvia, Slovakia, Uzbekistan, Ukraine, Croatia, Israel, Moldova, Romania and Turkmenistan. This is stated in the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) Human Development Report 2006. This year it is dedicated to the problem of access to water.

Its authors draw attention to the fact that in the modern world there is enough water on Earth to satisfy the needs of all humanity. However, 1.1 billion people do not have access to clean drinking water, and 2.6 billion do not have access to sanitation. Experts fear that the current situation could lead to wars over water resources.

“Perhaps these kinds of fears are exaggerated. But the possibility of border tensions and conflicts cannot be ruled out. Water shortages and weak mechanisms for its distribution can serve as the real basis for such conflicts,” the report says.

According to the report, Moldova, Romania, Hungary, Turkmenistan and about ten other countries in the world receive more than 75 percent of their water resources from external sources. Azerbaijan, Latvia, Slovakia, Uzbekistan and Ukraine receive 50 percent of their water needs from abroad.

The authors emphasize that people's lack of water is partly due to the fact that water resources are unevenly distributed. People in the Middle East facing severe water shortages are unlikely to benefit from the fact that Canada has far more water than it can use. Today, approximately 700 million people in 43 countries have water resources below the minimum human requirement. By 2025, this figure will be three billion people, as the need for water will increase in China, India, and sub-Saharan Africa. 538 million people in Northern China already live in conditions of water scarcity. More than 1.4 billion people live in river basins where water levels do not allow for natural replenishment.

The report's authors emphasize that the level of water consumption per capita is growing from year to year. Between 1990 and 2000, the world's population quadrupled and water consumption increased seven and a half times.

At the same time, many countries do not consider the problem of water and sanitation a priority and do not allocate the necessary resources to solve it. Often water scarcity is a consequence of government policies, lack of proper water management and excess water use.

According to experts, a person needs at least 20 liters of water per day. However, 1.1 billion people in the world use about five liters per day. At the same time, European residents consume 200 liters of water per person, and the US population consumes 400 liters. When a European or American takes a shower, he throws out more water than hundreds of millions of people living in urban slums or dry areas in developing countries.

Lack of access to water and sanitation has dire consequences. Unsanitary conditions are the second biggest killer of children. Diarrhea kills 1.8 million children every year, equal to all children under five in New York and London.

The EU intervened in water wars

Over the next two years, Kazakhstan may acquire a large share of assets in the energy sector of Kyrgyzstan, reports the portal “Centrasia.Ru” with reference to the Kyrgyz opposition resource “White Sail”. Astana has already done this in Tajikistan. If this happens in Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan will acquire a hydropower cudgel against any player in the region. Russia has traditionally been the arbiter in the water-energy conflict between the countries of the region, but now the EU is claiming this role.

The other day, Prime Minister of Kyrgyzstan Igor Chudinov said that 4 foreign companies are interested in the upcoming privatization of the country's hydropower capacities, but did not name them. Last Monday, the famous Kyrgyz political scientist Nur Omarov called on the country's authorities not to transfer hydropower facilities to private hands. According to him, the names of the future owners are already known. Mr. Omarov did not specify who they were, but explained that these people were living abroad. However, it is expected that in the near future the President of Kyrgyzstan Kurmanbek Bakiyev will speak on this topic with his Kazakh counterpart Nursultan Nazarbayev during a visit to Astana.

Meanwhile, the purchase of Kyrgyz hydroelectric power stations by the Kazakhs will only aggravate the water and energy conflict between the two groups of Central Asian countries. Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, which have a lot of hydrocarbons but little water, are raising oil and gas prices and reducing their supplies to Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, which in turn are deprived of hydrocarbons, but control the mountain sources of the two main rivers of Central Asia - the Syr Darya and Amu Darya. In response, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are building powerful hydroelectric power plants to compensate for the lack of fuel with electricity. However, water retention by mountain dams exacerbates water shortages on the plains of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, and the annual release of billions of cubic meters of water from hydroelectric reservoirs causes devastating floods in these countries.

In particular, Kazakhstan calls on Kyrgyzstan to stop large releases of water from the Toktogul hydroelectric station. But this would lead to a reduction in electricity generation, and Kyrgyz people need something to keep warm in winter. Last winter, Astana and Bishkek were unable to agree on this issue. “Since 1992, neighboring countries began supplying hydrocarbon raw materials for thermal power plants of Kyrgyzstan in the winter at market prices, while they do not consider the discharged water from the Toktogul reservoir an energy resource,” the Kyrgyz prime minister recently complained. “We want to receive payment from neighboring countries for regulating flows and storing water in the Toktogul reservoir.”

The problem could have been solved long ago by returning to the proven Soviet scheme of resource exchange. Under the USSR, mountainous Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan released or withheld their water when their lowland neighbors needed it, selling them the summer surplus of electricity in exchange for preferential supplies of fuel for boiler houses. But since 1992, the ruling clans of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have become so addicted to oil and gas dollars that they are not ready to give up even a small part of them in order to save their own population from floods. At the last SCO summit, President of Uzbekistan Islam Karimov said that it is impossible to violate the “established” order of water use, therefore Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are required to coordinate the projects of their hydroelectric power stations with Tashkent and Astana. This statement was supported by Nazarbayev.

Kyrgyzstan does not agree with this and continues to build the Kambarata cascade of hydroelectric power stations. Bishkek hopes that the project will be supported by Russia, represented by RAO UES, and offers Moscow an energy club with which to besiege Nazarbayev and Karimov. But the Kremlin today has other priorities - oil and gas. They don’t want to quarrel with Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan and once again push them into the arms of China and the United States. Gazprom fears a reduction in gas supplies from Central Asia, the direct supplies of which are also claimed by China and the EU.

It seems that under these conditions, wealthy Kazakhstan made an offer to the Kyrgyz elite that they did not want to refuse. It is possible that the new owners - the Kazakhs - will significantly limit electricity consumption in Bishkek and the three northern regions of Kyrgyzstan in order to reduce the load on the Toktogul hydroelectric station and, accordingly, water discharges to Kazakhstan.

But this does not mean that water and energy wars in the region will subside. Nazarbayev and Karimov are still in no mood to concede to Bakiyev and Tajik President Emomali Rakhmonov on hydrocarbon prices. In 2008, Astana plans to begin construction of a 40-kilometer dam on a grandiose artificial reservoir to hold about 2 billion cubic meters. m of Toktogul water. Uzbekistan has already built similar reservoirs.

Meanwhile, the European Union is already getting involved in the “water wars,” imposing its mediation on the countries of the region. Yesterday, the EU Troika-Central Asia meeting of foreign ministers opened in Ashgabat. According to the European Commission's Commissioner for External Relations, Benita Ferrero-Waldner, the EU intends to strengthen the energy component of cooperation with Tajikistan by providing assistance in the construction of several mini-hydroelectric power plants in remote rural areas and the restoration of existing capacities. The EU authorities are no less interested in Uzbek gas and Kazakh oil than Moscow. In addition, they are interested in maintaining the German and NATO Air Force base in Central Asia, the fate of which also depends on Tashkent. But, unlike Russia, for some reason they are not afraid to quarrel with the fickle Islam Karimov in Brussels.

VICTOR YADUKHA

10.04.2008

The borders that exist on maps of the Middle East and North Africa are largely the result of ongoing conflicts over water, truces and peace plans. The water problem, which threatens the national security and internal stability of the states in the region, is becoming a catalyst for confrontation in the region.

Since 1990, the United Nations Development Program has published an annual report, which in 2006 was called “ Beyond Scarcity: Power, Poverty and the Global Water Crisis" Considerable attention in this report was paid to the problem of water in the countries of the Middle East and North Africa. In this region, more than 44 million people do not have the opportunity to consume well-treated water, 96 million do not have access to water purification at all. The report notes that “the lack of clean water and sanitation is destroying human potential on an epic scale.”

Speaking about this problem, we should start with the fact that water resources in the Middle East are sharply decreasing from year to year. Although the Middle East and North Africa is home to 5% of the world's population, it accounts for only 0.9% of the world's water reserves. The number of MENA countries in need of water increased from 3 in 1955 (Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait) to 11 in 1990 (including Algeria, Somalia, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates and Yemen). 7 more countries (Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Libya, Morocco, Oman and Syria) are expected to join the list by 2025. The total renewable water supply in the region is approximately 2.4 billion cubic meters per year, while water consumption is 3 billion cubic meters. The existing water shortage is compensated by its extraction (without replenishment) from ground and underground sources.

Typically, water consumption growth is twice as fast as population growth. If the current rate of population growth, as well as agricultural and industrial development, continues, then within 20–30 years all the fresh water available in Israel and Jordan will be used exclusively for drinking. Agriculture will be able to receive only purified wastewater, and industry will use desalinated seawater. Currently, the region consumes about 310 million cubic meters of treated wastewater, of which 250 million cubic meters come from Israel and 60 million from Jordan. Large-scale use of treated wastewater cannot continue for a long time, as it leads to a high degree of saturation of soils with mineral salts, as well as fresh water sources located both on the surface and underground.

Depletion of water resources, pollution of fresh water sources due to the discharge of industrial effluents and untreated waste, intensive agricultural and industrial use of water, pollution of rivers, aquifers and lakes by runoff from fields containing chemical fertilizers and pesticides, drainage of wetlands for agricultural purposes and housing construction, population growth in the region increases the strategic importance of water.

Shimon Peres, one of the leading Israeli politicians in his book “The New Middle East”, speaking about the causes of the water crisis in the region, notes that “there are four reasons that the region needs water - these are natural phenomena, rapid population growth, irrational water use and policies that need adjustment. We find ourselves hostage to a situation where, as soon as poverty increases, population increases and the amount of water decreases, which in turn leads to poverty and a new round of population growth.”

Taking into account the above factors, it should be noted that there are already existing conflict situations that have arisen in relation to the main rivers of the region. The main conflicts related to water distribution include:

Conflict between Turkey and Syria (over the Tigris and Euphrates rivers);

Conflict between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia (over the Nile River);

Conflict between Israel, the Palestinian Authority and Jordan (over the Jordan River basin).

Relations between Syria and Turkey have been extremely tense due to disputes over the distribution of waters from the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. Since the 1980s, tensions between the two countries have brought them to the brink of war several times. Despite the signing in 1987 Protocol to provide Syria with access to the waters of the Euphrates River Türkiye has tried several times to restrict this access. Such attempts include the creation of a project called “Southeastern Anatolia”, which would allow Turkey, located at the sources of the Tigris and Euphrates, to control the flows of these rivers. In January 1990, Turkey disrupted the flow of Euphrates waters in order to fill the water basins in front of the Ataturk Dam. This measure once again highlighted Syria's vulnerability to Turkey's policies regarding water resources upstream of the Euphrates River.

The water conflict between Syria and Turkey was also complicated by a political aspect - Syria's long-term support for the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which advocates the formation of Kurdish autonomy, which is the reason for the long-term confrontation between the Turkish authorities and the PKK. The activities of the PKK interfered with Turkey's blockade of the waters of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. Many researchers fear further complications of the situation and the formation of a new regional conflict. There are serious reasons for such concerns. If the South-Eastern Anatolia project is fully implemented, the volume of Euphrates waters in Syria will be reduced by 40%, and in Iraq by up to 80%.

There are prerequisites for development Nile water crisis. Ethiopia views the water issue as a matter of utmost importance. Since the overthrow of the “communist regime” of Mengistu in 1991 and the devastating conflict with Eritria, Ethiopia has neither economic stability nor sufficient financial capacity to obtain the necessary volumes of water through expensive desalination. In many ways, these circumstances determine Ethiopia's attitude towards the use of Nile waters by Egypt. Ethiopia is increasingly pressing for a revision Nile water agreements, signed in 1959, considering it unequal and preferential for Egypt and Sudan. Several times there have been reports that Ethiopia intends to unilaterally refuse to implement this agreement, which could lead not only to a conflict situation, but also to an armed clash with Egypt.

For its part, Egypt has long taken a hard line regarding the Nile. Currently, Egypt places the issue of water resources at the center of its foreign and domestic policies. Attempts were made to concentrate as much water resources as possible on their territory. Such attempts include the construction of the Aswan Dam in the 1960s.

However, despite these measures, Egypt is becoming more water vulnerable year by year. This is happening under the influence of deteriorating environmental conditions, water quality, and also under the influence of changes in the political climate in the region. Added to these are the factors of drought in Ethiopia, as well as the inability of the Aswan Reservoir to maintain a balance between evaporation and inflow of Nile waters. Long-used limited agricultural areas have become small at a time when population growth rates are rapidly increasing (by the beginning of the 21st century, Egypt's population reached 70 million people). Sudan, involved in the conflict, ravaged by civil war and ruled by a radical Islamic fundamentalist regime, has repeatedly shown expansionist sentiments regarding the Nile waters, threatening to refuse to implement the 1959 agreement.

The Jordan River Basin is also the subject of long-term conflict between Israel, the Palestinian Authority and Jordan. Between 1948 and 1955, the first years after Israel's independence, countries in the region failed to reach mutual understanding and create a regional plan for the development or distribution of water resources. The proposals were formed by everyone - the governments of Israel, Jordan, Syria, Egypt, as well as representatives of the USA, USSR and the UN. However, the proposals prepared by the countries of the region were focused on satisfying only their own internal interests and, for political and practical reasons, could not be implemented throughout the region. The adoption of international projects was also very problematic, since they contained new approaches to the distribution of water resources, including the recognition of Israel as a state and an equal partner.

Having rejected proposals for water allocation, each state in the region began to implement its own national water development plan. The purpose of these plans was to satisfy pressing domestic needs, which inevitably led to competition for the exploitation of shared water resources. Such rivalry and lack of resources have begun to create security problems. In 1955, Israel created the National Water Company to divert water from the Jordan River to southern Israel and the Negev Desert, where the population was constantly increasing. In response, Syria and Jordan began building a dam in 1964 to divert the flow of the Yarmouk and Banyas rivers and prevent the National Water Company of Israel from achieving its goal. The tensions created by these actions are one of the reasons for the 1967 war, during which Israel bombed the dam, occupied the Golan Heights, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, and expanded access to the banks of the Yarmouk and Jordan rivers, thereby strengthening its positions in control of the freshwater resources of the three largest sources, which include: the springs and upper reaches of the Jordan River, approximately half of the Yarmouk River and the riparian area of the upper Banyas River. This enabled Israel to undertake a number of large irrigation projects.

At the same time, Jordan completed a project to build a large dam that blocked the flow of the eastern tributaries of the Jordan River south of Yarmouk and created its own water distribution system.

It should be noted that water consumption in this area is not uniform. The total demand for water in Israel ranges between 1.750 - 2000 million kb. m. of water per year. Of this volume, most of the water is spent on agricultural needs (70-75%); for home consumption - 20–25% and only 5–6% falls on the share of industry. The water supply to Israel is 1,500–1,750 million kb. m., which is insufficient. In Israel, domestic water consumption per person per month is more than 100 cubic meters. m. per month. According to some data, the renewable volume of water on the territory of the Palestinian state is 1080 million cubic meters. m. Domestic water consumption per person per month differs in rural areas of the West Bank, where volumes do not exceed 15 cubic meters. m., from urban areas (35 cubic meters).

In the Gaza Strip, total water consumption is 100–120 million kb. m., of which 60–80 million kb. m are intended for agriculture and 40 million kb. m. for home use. The supply is entirely dependent on groundwater, which is naturally renewed in a volume of slightly less than 60 million cubic meters. m. and which, if overused, are at risk of loss of volume, quality, as well as filling with sea water. Currently, the permissible salt content in underground waters is 10% higher than the permissible salt content.

Water demand in Jordan fluctuates between 765 million kb. m. and 880 million kb. m. The agricultural sector accounts for more than 70% of this volume, household consumption - 20% and industry less than 5%. Jordan, which receives water only from underground sources and the Jordan River, is expected to experience increasing water shortages, reaching 250 million cubic meters (from 173 million cubic meters of annual consumption) by 2010.

What are the ways out of conflict situations regarding water issues in the region? At the moment, there are already several projects to solve the water problem in the Middle East and North Africa. These include Turkey's proposed “peace pipeline,” designed to transfer water from Turkey's Seyhan and Ceyhan to Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and other Gulf countries. There were also projects to import water by sea or distribute water through a comprehensive distribution system, etc. However, at the moment, all these projects have failed for one reason or another.

In the near future, a combination of political infighting, overexploitation of natural resources, and pollution may make fresh water shortages a precondition for increasing tensions in the region.

At one time, the late King Hussein of Jordan claimed that “ the only issue that will plunge Jordan into war is water" The former UN Secretary General Boutros Boutros Ghali is of the same opinion, arguing that “ the next war in the Middle East will be over water" Whether such predictions are true, time will tell. At the moment, it is obvious that it is necessary to develop clear legal guarantees regarding access and consumption of water resources by countries in this region. Future efforts to normalize tense regional relations on this issue should take into account the historical and geopolitical characteristics of the region, concentrate on the equitable distribution of available resources, and create a defense structure that guarantees security.